Sadiq Khan: A hard Brexit equals loss in investment and jobs
03:32, Jan 13, 2018
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The report also argues that London could suffer much less from Brexit than the rest of the country, thereby increasing geographic inequalities across the UK.
The scenario-based study was conducted by Cambridge Econometrics.
Financial and professional services could be the hardest hit, with 119,000 fewer jobs nationally, the report claims.
The German automobile industry is expected to bear a loss of up to $4.6 billion in the Brexit year, mainly because of the close interdependence of the suppliers with carmakers in Germany, Britain and other European Union countries, stated the report named "hard Brexit and supply chain".
Even softer Brexit scenarios, like the United Kingdom remaining in the Single Market, but leaving the Customs Union after a transition period, could still result in 176,000 fewer jobs across the country.
A so-called "hard Brexit" that would see Britain leave both the single market and the customs union, could cut revenues in Germany's crucial auto parts industry by up to €3.8 billion (approx RM18.2 billion), the accounting firm Deloitte said. However, the report failed to factor in the potential benefits of the United Kingdom striking free trade deals with third countries if it left the EU customs union.
Scenario two envisages the United Kingdom remaining part of the single market, but not the customs union, while scenario three has it in the customs union but not the single market.
Trade negotiations between the United Kingdom and the EU are expected to resume in March, after the European Commission noted "sufficient progress" on three key issues: Northern Ireland, EU citizens, and the so-called "divorce bill".
A no-deal Brexit could cost the United Kingdom economy £50bn, according to independent economic analysis commissioned by Mayor of London Sadiq Khan.
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